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Wallabies’ World Cup survival now depends on the team they just beat

Australia’s Rugby World Cup hopes are still narrowly alive after a bonus point victory, against a relentless Portugal in Saint-Étienne.

Wallabies’ World Cup survival now depends on the team they just beat

This column reprinted with permission of the author, Simon Poidevin.

Pool C: Australia 34 – Portugal 14

Australia’s Rugby World Cup hopes are still narrowly alive after a bonus point victory, against a relentless Portugal in Saint-Étienne.

At one stage in the second half, the Wallabies were down to 13 players after consecutive yellow cards, defending valiantly against a tiring Portugal. Marika Koroibete was enormous in defence, punishing any Portuguese unfortunate enough to pop up on his radar.

In attack, the new centre combination of Lalakai Foketi and Izaia Perese were strong and direct, consistently getting the Wallabies across the advantage line. Andrew Kellaway was superb at fullback, at one stage pulling off a spectacular try saving tackle.

The Wallabies scrum again started strongly but faded as the game progressed – however they were smart enough to survive a Portuguese onslaught when down a man late in the game.

The lineout was disrupted when the outstanding Nick Frost succumbed to a knee injury incurred early in the match.

Eddie Jones and the Wallabies will now have to prepare this week with enormous focus and discipline, knowing they are basically dead but mathematically still alive.

Australia’s mathematical miracle relies on a near-total Fijian capitulation against Portugal in what will be the final match of the group stage in Toulouse at 6am AEST next Monday. The Rugby World Cup rules to resolve pool stage tiebreaks are, in order:

  • The winner of the match between two tied teams is ranked higher.
  • The team with the points difference in the pool stages is ranked higher.
  • The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded in the pool stages is ranked higher.
  • The team which has scored the most points in the pool stages is ranked higher.
  • The team which has scored the most tries in the pool stages is ranked higher.

For the Wallabies, it’s only really the first two that count. Portugal needs to beat Fiji, and stop them getting any bonus points, through either scoring four tries or losing by seven or less. One bonus point would bring Fiji level with Australia.

Because Fiji beat Australia, that would trump the points differential and be enough to send Fiji through.

But Portugal’s strong showing this morning, and Fiji’s lucky escape against Georgia, means hope is not completely lost.

Pool C: Fiji 17 – Georgia 12

The clash between Fiji and Georgia went down to the wire in Bordeaux, with Fiji scrambling home 17 to 12 as Georgia lost the race to a grubber kick into the Fijian in-goal in the last seconds.

Georgia were outstanding in both attack and defence, never giving up against a Fijian team that ran 927 metres.

The super committed Georgians made 199 tackles with an accuracy of an incredible 91.5 per cent, against a team with one of the most potent attacking platforms in the tournament. Georgia’s powerful pack dominated the lineout, but surprisingly lost the scrum battle to Fiji.

Fijian goal kicker Simione Kurovoli was off his game. Unlike his perfect performance against Australia – this put a lot of scoreboard pressure on Fiji as Georgia didn’t miss, kicking three penalty goals and leading 9-0 at halftime.

There will be concerns around Semi Radradra, who may have injured his hamstring after returning from 10 minutes in the sin bin.

Fiji would have hoped for a smoother passage to the quarter-finals, but not scoring a bonus point kept Australia alive.

Pool A: New Zealand 96 – Italy 17

The All Blacks have regained their Mojo with a thumping demolition of Italy in Lyon. The Kiwis were ruthless, making a real statement against an Italian team that, after decades of experience in the Six Nations, are not meant to lose by cricket scores like this.

The quality the All Blacks produced across the field at Lyon flashed warning signs for every team they are yet to face in this incredible World Cup. Most importantly in tournament rugby, both Richie Mo’unga and Damien McKenzie didn’t miss with conversions or penalty kicks, landing 13 from all over the park.

The win virtually locks up the quarter-finalists from Pool A. In the final matches, the All Blacks will be far too strong for Uruguay and, barring something totally unforeseen, a rested France will dispatch Italy. That will leave New Zealand facing a mouth-watering quarter-final against Ireland at the Stade de France on October 14th.

Unless, that is, Pool B has its own surprise…

Pool B: South Africa 49 – Tonga 18

South Africa secured a bonus point victory against Tonga in Marseille, locking the Springboks into a yet another World Cup quarter-final appearance.

Tonga were enormously brave in a bruising and entertaining contest, with nine tries scored – six to South Africa and three to Tonga.

One of the Tongan tries was scored by Patrick Pellegrini, a junior I coached at Randwick and now plying his skills as a flyhalf in English Rugby – what an occasion for a young man who has always dreamed of playing at the highest level of the game.

Handre Pollard played a solid 50 minutes, before being replaced by Manie Libbok – South Africa now have two quality options at number 10 and Pollard looks destined to start in the quarter-finals.

South Africa can now sit back and hope that Scotland can upset Ireland in Saint- Denis next Saturday to stay at the Top of the pool. And that’s where Pool B gets interesting.

Scotland did little wrong when they flogged minnows Romania 84-0 on Sunday AEST. If they can beat the world number one ranked team for the first time since 2017, they will knock Ireland out of the tournament. That is unlikely, but Scotland have rarely had a better team, so it’s far from impossible.

Pool D: Argentina 59 – Chile 5

Argentina smacked their South American cousins Chile in Nantes. Flyhalf Nicholas Sanchez, playing his 100th test for Argentina, racked up 20 points.

Argentina’s path to the quarters is now crystal clear. Argentina and an impressive Japan are locked together on nine points. Whoever wins when they face off in Nantes next Sunday will go through.

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